Debriefing I

During the CEMS Model UNFCCC, students have an opportunity to simulate the negotiations. It leads to some observations which reflect problems and opportunities of real debates and communication processes between countries.

Students' opinions - what poses a problem:

• The topic is complex;
• There are many climate-friendly NGOs, which are not too active during debates;
• Too many countries from the EU are present (they will have to reach agreement anyway);
• It will be easier if other delegates were my close friends;
• It would be easier to be from one school;
• From some schools there were no position papers; content and layout vary significantly;
• People do not want to resign from their position;
• Delegates do not realize that changes will affect all countries.

Students' opinions - what helps delegates:

• Press coverage :)
  
• Chairs helped a lot during the group work (i.e. agreements on common understanding);
• Countries were eager to discuss the funding;
• It is good that we can already agree to 2.0 degree;
• "If the climate was a bank, it would have been already saved".

Students' opinions - what can happen tomorrow:

• All countries need to rethink their positions;
• New technologies, new mechanisms;
• Creation of global government;
• Top-down approach should not take place.

Breaking news: Hurricane Mercedes sweeps death through western Europe

Strong winds destroyed the coastal areas of western Europe, killing 48 people with the number expected to rise throughout the night. The hurricane, thought to be due to increasing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, whipped the coast of the France with up to 170 mph (280 kph) winds. It destroyed dozens of homes and ripped roofs and walls from dozens more. It cut power supplies in a few regional cities and laid waste to hundreds of millions of euro worth of crops.

Check out http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm for more info about hurricanes and the link to climate change.

Best quotations from the afternoon plenary session

• "You kind of miss the opportunity to grow." Mr Daniel Nagy, Papua New Guinea
• "The only good thing about Chinese goods is that they are cheap." Ms Petra Podracka, Greenpeace, France
• "We now talk only about China and Brazil, not India and Russia - they are not here? So they will have to accept what we agree on." Mr Thomas Mollnhuber, USA

The need for developing new model..

" There is no need for adapting a new model as we have already set specific targets and have exact numbers" commented the representative of Switzerland on the new model presented by climate change expert Mr  Fukuyama.

Common boat

"We are like people in the boat rowing in a different directions. We are going to drown. They will drown..."

Mr Jalal Koubaiti, the respective German delegate, convinces respective representatives to rethink their positions.

Photo source: fineartamerica.com

EU vs China's proposal

"As the EU we would like to stress that we do not want agree for the solution proposed by China. We are committed to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degree which is our main goal.We want all countries to participate in this commitment".

Ewa Grzesiuk, UK representative

Russia, not only fossil fuels but also...

... for the second time in the history, the Fossil-of-the-Day Award goes to Russia.

"They were not only late for the negotiations. Their administration simply ignored us. What is more they were not attending the adaptation group and we really need their voice!"
/a few anonymous delegates*/

*Some delegates decided to stay anonymous being afraid of possible consequences for their countries.

US public backlash at UNFCCC negotiations

US public have backlashed at the US government's generous emission targets reductions, as announced in the Mitigation Working Group at the UNFCCC in Barclona. A Tea Party Rally has taken Washington by storm, with over 20 000 right-wing Republicans marching against Obama's proposed 20% emissions reduction by 2020, based on 1990 baseline.

Sarah Palin made a surprise appearance as the keynote speaker of the rally, to denounce Obama's strategy at the UNFCCC, stating 'This will cost our country billions. Why should America pay the price for the emissions that China will emit in the future? I care about America's future. Our future. And Obama is giving it away to make friends in countries that I didn't even know existed.".

source photo:flippopper.com

Brazil explains Chinese model and mitigation group proposals

"The main problem with Chinese model is that there are many factors to be discussed. This procedure is time-consuming and would require another peak.
We could agree on reduction targets and this was the goal of our discussion. The detailed results will be announced tomorrow. The proposal from Maldives is now 1.5 degrees but major players are unable to accept this."

Sandra von Bidder, Brazil representative

Further discussion will take place later. US and Germany are very committed to further reductions.

Photo source:joetulchin.com

Russia's abscence, or Absinth?

Russia's prolonged absence is taking it's toll on the American- Russian relations, as the American delegation complain that it's impossible to come to meaningful agreements when the Russian delegation is absent from all working groups.

Perhaps they have enjoyed a little too much of their traditional drink...

(source photo:alex-ltj.blogspot.com)

Will the developing countries get the amount of money they are asking for?

The main issue which countries will contribute money and what percentage of their GDP remains unclear. To solve the problem, the representative from Tuvalu proposed to split up in two groups and hold the discussions. USA, Australia, Canada and UK agreed to contribute 0.25% of their GDP, stating that developing countries can't oblige them to contribute up to 1%. China refused to give any funding as it considers itself developing country. According to their statement, large number of their population is below the poverty line.

Before giving the money developed countries are asking for detailed plans, how will this money be distributed among developing countries and whether is will be spent appropriately or not. Actually developing countries came up with criteria for distributing the money. Some of them are venerability index, population and so on. The adaptation committee will take care of it.

Developing countries ask for $ 200 billion while the maximum they can get is $ 106 billion, if they get 0.25% of the annex 1 countries' GDP, the amount will go up to0 $113 billion from 2015, when China and Brazil will contribute 0.1% of their GDP.

The representative of the USA is demanding Russia to be present on the meeting and contribute part of its GDP.

French Nuclear Power press release

" Renewables are not competitive yet. They will need decades to be competitive. And for the mean time, we need low carbon technology that is ready for large scale energy production. So nuclear power is the birdge technology for the period 2011-2050. We have many countries who support our opinion, for example the United States, France, and positive signs from Brazil, China and India. "  French Nuclear Industry representative

source photo: french.ac.nz

Unclear whether Switzerland is in EU alliance or not

It is still unclear if Switzerland is still alliance with the European Union- we await further details as the handshake was too quick to photograph.

Trading Working Group Press Release

"We have made significant progrress towards reaching an agreement that will enable CDMs to continue functioning independently of the Barcelona Protocol agreement. Parties agree on the framework but are still discussing the details. A finalised agreement should be reached tomorrow."- Trading Working Group Chairs

AOSIS being unreasonable?

AOSIS are making 'incredibly unreasonable' demands from developed countries, according to an undisclosed western Government source.

Tuvalu indignant with China and the EU

"Tuvalu believes China offers too little. The European Union seems not to be very committed and coordinated as well. They have problems with putting numbers in table!"
/Dominik Seliger/

Weather warning

We have weather forecast warnings of strong winds in southern Spain later this afternoon. Check out Spanish weather websites for more information.

Tuvalu and Grenada start the battle!

There was a rumor that Greenpeace left "1.5" stickers on the doors. However, we soon discovered the truth. This is the new strategy of Tuvalu and Grenada.

Tuvalu and Grenada came to the negotiations only in the afternoon due to the long journey. Their respective representatives started a media campaign "1.5 to stay alive".

Terrorist threats from Greenpeace- and their position on China.

There were threats from Greenpeace that unless France started to act green, then 'watch out for your nuclear plants, they are within our range'.
Greenpeace supports China's proposal but says 'it needs to be polished'. Greenpeace also wanted to remind the French government that they should be aware that in France there roughly 16% of European Parliament's vote in France were for the French Green Party.

This outspoken account from a leading green NGO highlights the distance between France's ruling elite and the general electorate, fueling further civil unrest.

EU Press Release

EU has announced that it has a common stance on these negotiations:  the EU wants to focus on defining a successor to Kyoto, rather than changing the whole framework. 'Changing frameworks now is just a waste of time', says the German Government minister speaking on behalf of the EU.

Switzerland leaves European alliance!

In a dramatic twist, we understand Switzerland has left the alliance formed with many other European countries, as signalled by the Swiss delegate's vocal support of the Chinese proposal in the plenary.

China's radical proposal

China proposes a distribution of 'leftover'
emissions to reach 2 degree target. The proposal calculates the exact per capita emissions allowed over the time frame 1950-2050 for the world to avoid serious climate change, and all countries are permitted equal per capita emissions, on average over this time frame. What is new about this proposal is that it heavily emphasises the historical emissions, measuring emissions from 1950. Each human being has the right to emit the same amount of CO2, but the US has already exceeded the amount it is allowed to emit per capita for this period even by 2011, so it must already offset these with emissions 'not polluted' from countries such as China, who are beneath the total per capita level.


Germany thinks too much time has been spent on presenting this proposal rather than building a Kyoto successor, and New Zealand notes that this incentivises population growth. China answers it has been criticised in the past for its rigorous population growth measures, and emphasises the 2007 population baseline for avoiding perverse incentives.

Russia sleeps

Russian delegates appeared to be unaware of the questions being asked to them, despite rising unhappiness from many delegates, particularly from the other BRIC countries, of the absence of the Russian government.

source photo: dailycontributor.com

Greenpeace wearing green!

Poor countries asking developed countries for finances

Developing countries want developed countries to finance them, as they are limited in resources and can’t provide enough funding themselves. USA refuses to finance others if it doesn’t get something in return. At the same time US won’t pay if BRIC is not paying.

But before taking the decisions US has to consider that if it doesn’t give the funding to the developing countries it will result in US flooding by immigrants from South American countries, for ex. Argentina. So poor countries are asking for help, otherwise their population will migrate to US.

Rumour has it...

...that some countries previously reknowned for evading emissions targets will soon be proposing per-capita emissions targets.

EU countries discuss China's proposal and common position

"As Europe we have the technology to do it, so we should do it!"
/Johan Espinosa, Germany/

All delegates of the European Union gathered to discuss the new proposal. The Spanish representative, Mr Daniel Hermann says that the key element is the time frame. Many representatives agreed that with negotiations time limits introducing the new scheme is impossible. The most important points are as follows:

• the coherence with previous targets,
• the base year should stay 1999,
• discussed periods should be limited by 2020 and 2050.

For the 2020, all delegates agreed to 30% reductions. The countries expressed a will to commit to 80% reductions by 2050. If any country commits to reduce emissions by 0.5%, the common reduction will rise respectively. However, Poland and Czech Republic says it may not acceptable. In reply, the representative of Merkel's administration said that the most important is the common voice. Switzerland joined the circle and has a strong voice in the fierce discussion.

Subsidies return, in a new form

Much of the talk in the trading working group is about a 'co-efficient' system of trading, proposed by Ecuador, which favours certain industries and regions over others for CDM projects, in order to promote CDM projects more.

But in the end, one tonne of CO2 is one tonne of CO2, no matter where it is 'not emitted', so why bother trying to work against the market in this 'market based mechanism'?

Mitigation group: temperature - bone of contention

"We are not gonna survive!", this dramatic appeal of Maldives stirred many hearts, but not the one of the China's representative. He said that they had moved many citizens and Maldives should accept that some people have to move. The discussion goes around a 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees goal.

Brazil has the opinion that delegates should find common understanding. Maldives calls for including a realistic approach which will mean the existence of the Maldives. Sudan supports the 1.5 degree even if it would be not be achieved. Germany comments that it is pointless to choose goal that will not be possible. Meanwhile, France shows some research: the goal cannot be reached without the nuclear power! The reply of Saudi Arabia is immediate: after Japan's nuclear catastrophe, the world should be careful.

China arrives at Trading working group!

Moments after our last post, China arrived! Thought, it was over half way through the working group with only 20 minutes to go. China proposes including REDD into the CDM. But China is not directly affected by REDD...China strongly supports continuation of CDM, but needs further technology transfer.

Trading Working Group- China absent

Empty chair where China could be sitting hampers the effectiveness of the negotiations about CDM, given that it currently hosts the largest number of CDM projects.

Wow... Russia is finally present!!!!

Russia finally arrived for the coffee break, why didn't they arrive on time ? Are they being impolite or they are hiding their own strategy from other countries? It seems Russia is keeping its word not to negotiate.We will see what happens.....

Real balance of power?

Many countries have opted to send their industry to negotiate on behalf of the government in the trading working group.

Russian industry represent the government! Has the real distribution of power in these countries finally gone public?

France's nuclear industry is here on behalf on their government: a sign of the power of the nuclear industry? France wants nuclear projects to qualify for CDM, and Poland is aligning itself with France. UK accounts for almost 30% of buying of credits through CDM, go Brits!

The US, almost forgotten by the committee chairs,  is also in favour of CDM.


(source photo: http://www.catastrophemonitor.com/2011/05/how-nuclear-power-works/)

Mitigation group: China's proposal

China presented a new proposal of accumulated amount of CO2 counting. The idea covers both mitigation and trading. Being a totally new method, it is quite revolutionary and changes the whole system. The index proposed is favorable for developing countries, but will be negative, e.g. for Germany. India supports the idea and defends the per capita element in the calculations. France and Brazil suggested that the new idea should be discussed in the plenary.

Mitigation group: Greenpeace infects chairs computer with suspicious movie!

The mitigation working group meeting started with the video by Greenpeace which could not have been removed from the chair’s computer. The respective delegates were forced to watch it. Fortunately, the IT service reported that the sensible data was not hacked.

The agenda announced is as follows:

Issue 1a: commitments by Annex 1 countries

• reduction till 2020/2050
• year of emission to peak
• annual reduction following peak

Issue 1b: commitments by Developed Nations

• reduction till 2020/2050
• year of emission to peak
• annual following peak
• financial and technical support

The movie will be available soon.

Opening statements continued...

Papau New Guinea: Climate refugees likely from here, so please come to an agreement!

Maldives: echoes previous speaker.

Canada: search for binding agreement that reflects different cost in mitigation. Is prepared to help non-developed countries.

Zambia: looking forward to controversial discussions. Climate change has an impact everywhere. It is a fact. Calling for a concrete number of CDM projects. Can find 2000 projects all over the world, but only 50 in the African continent. Want a clear and binding commitment to replace Kyoto. Spoke on behalf of Sudan.

The UK: Recent weather events show need for these negotiations. Want to keep temperature increase at 2 degrees or less. Calls for new global target for emission reduction.


Bolivia: one of the most vulnerable countries. Calls for new legally binding agreement. Strict targets for all annex 1 countries. All mitigation measures in developing coutnries should be financed by developed countries, at least 3% of their GDP. Proposes creation of International Climate Justice Court. Developing countries should find common bargaining position against capitalist forces dominating UNFCCC process.

Argentina: Community of the world. Aims: expect binding agreements of temperature, 1.5 degrees hopefully. Call for contracts to secure funding under UNFCCC. Calls for concrete actions.

Ecuador: Support Latin American partners. Common responsibility of the world. Calls for more proactive approach from developing countries.

South Africa: It's time to do something!

Switzerland: Concerned about destabilisation of entire regions. Poverty, migration. Doing something costs money, waiting for others to do something costs more, doing nothing costs even more. (bloggers note: purely economical argument!)

Brazil:  Wants annex-I countries to reduce their emissions, and for the US to commit to binding agreement. Brazil is willing to do voluntary reductions. Do not support emissions trading and would not put it into a post- Kyoto agreement, but are very favourable to a carbon trust. Very supportive of Climate Fund.

India: Want to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Extremely important to increase economic growth.

Spain: Welcome from the hosts! Expect global binding agreement, or setting a deadline. Wants to be in line with IPCC, keeping temperature increase below 2 degrees. Open to compromises based on facts.

China: (the late ones) Happy to discuss major threats posted by climate change. Delighted to hear US statement. China will be taking severe actions at national level (not just against human rights activists?) Common but differentiated priniciple very important.

Opening statements at a a glance

Saudi Arabia: Accepts the challenge of climate change, but observe 'common but differentiated' responsibilities. Developing countries should not have mandatory commitments, but should be willing to do voluntary reductions- speaking for other OPEC states as well. Technological approaches better than emissions reductions targets. Need to take into impact on trade not just environmental impact.

Venezuela: One of world's main producers of oil. Over last decade, we have strived to protect natural environment. Solution is to move from consumerist to socially and ecologicaly sustainable society. Current development of big captial is to blame.

France: Wants to be a pioneer, set example. Favours nuclear. Wants to help developing countries to 'do their bit'.

US: Ready to take ambitious targets, but expect everyone else to contribute. Ready for the challenge.

Mexico: Very susceptible to climate change, consequently very committed to a 'potentially' binding solution. Conditional on major powers also contributing. Seeks technological solution.

Germany: Ready to lead the way. Will work with developing countries to help them.

Poland: Want to decrease emissions even more in the future.  CG11 countries and EU have to be involved.

Thailand: One of the most vulnerable states, wants to save Bangkok. Wants to be a leader in the Asian region. An investment centre for renewable energies. Increase eco-friendly transport system.

Australia: 1.5 % global emissions, high mitigation cost. Favours market based mechanisms. Still believes in CDM.

New Zealand: same opinion as Australia: very low global emissions, but second highest mitigation costs. Already have 65% renewble energies. Agreement must be reached by everyone.

Bangladesh: One of the most vulnerable countries. Willing to initiate valuable changes in emissions reduction.

Russia government boycotts negotiations

Yesterday, the respective delegate of Russian oil industry announced that the country’s administration decided not to send the official delegate to the Barcelona negotiations. „The government has 75% of shares in our industry, so in fact, we can represent them”, said Mr. Kamil Kulak from Rosneft. The representative of Gazprom Mr. Luis Limones seemed to fully support Mr Kulak’s position. Russian representatives admitted to have a special strategy for these negotiations. „If we need it, we can take off our shoe, hit the table with it and they will have to listen to us”, said Mr Kulak.

On the first day of negotiations, Russian delegates haven’t appeared on the opening plenary. Is it a part of their new strategy?

Half of Association of Small Island States missing

It seems like the half of the AOSIS group were too attached to their palm tree view to arrive at the UNFCCC, and are only expected at 2pm. Perhaps because their airstrips have been flooded by the rising sea levels?

(source photo:http://www.lexas.net/laender/ozeanien/tuvalu/index.asp)

China arrives to negotiations late!

China shows little respect for the success of the negotitations, as they arrive 15 minutes late for the negotiations. The Maldives were also late, some early morning negotatiations perhaps, or merely running on Spanish time?

An unprecedented allignment of views between New Zealand, and two of the AOSIS (Assosiation of Small Island States), Grenada and Tuvalu, occured at the opening dinner last night, as all three countries joined together to denounce Canada's 'pitiful' proposed emissions reduction of 2%.

Is New Zealand dreaming of joining the small island state club, or does it just want to be part of the Rum-drinking, coconut-eating alliance?